Durable goods orders.

In plain English

Durable goods are products expected to last three years or more, such as aircraft, machinery, appliances, and vehicles, and the report counts orders placed rather than goods shipped. Because a handful of aircraft orders can swing the headline by double digits, analysts focus on a core measure that strips out transportation and defense. That core figure, sometimes called core capital goods orders, is treated as a proxy for planned business investment. Orders lead production, so the series turns before factory output does. The Census Bureau publishes it monthly.

01Why it matters

When businesses stop ordering equipment, hiring and capital spending usually slow next, so this report is an early warning that arrives before layoffs do.

02The math, step by step

Say headline durable goods orders jump 9 percent on a single large aircraft order. Strip out transportation and the remaining orders fall 0.4 percent. The headline says boom, the core says the underlying trend is flat to slightly down.

Illustrative example. The amounts here are hypothetical, chosen to show how the math works, not real quoted rates or figures.

03What this is NOT

04Receipts

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