Beige Book.

In plain English

The Beige Book summarizes what banks, employers, and other contacts in the twelve districts say about hiring, wages, prices, and demand, in words rather than statistics. Each Reserve Bank collects the reports in its own region, and one bank takes a turn writing the national summary. It appears roughly two weeks before each scheduled policy meeting, so it is the freshest read available when officials sit down. Because it is anecdotal, it catches turning points that surveys and official statistics confirm only months later. It is also imprecise, since a handful of conversations can color an entire district's paragraph.

01Why it matters

It is the earliest public sign that hiring is slowing or that businesses have stopped being able to raise prices, which is often the first clue about where rates are headed.

02The math, step by step

Say eight of twelve districts describe hiring as slight or flat and note that firms are letting attrition shrink headcount. Two months later the monthly jobs report shows payroll growth falling from 180,000 to 90,000. The anecdotes arrived first.

Illustrative example. The amounts here are hypothetical, chosen to show how the math works, not real quoted rates or figures.

03What this is NOT

04Receipts

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