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The complete editorial archive. New posts published most weeks.
May 2026
· 45 postsWhat 'real return' actually means (and why the headline number always overstates it)
A 5% nominal investment return at 3% inflation is a 1.94% real return, less than half the headline number. A plain-English look at what real return means, why every return number you see is nominal by default, and how that gap compounds across a long horizon.
Read →Stagflation: What the Word Actually Means, and Why Everyone Is Saying It Again
The word stagflation is back in the headlines. A plain-English look at what it means, why it is the hardest problem in economics, and whether the current moment actually fits the definition.
Read →What an all-time high actually means for your money (and what it doesn't)
Markets hit records all the time. In any given year since 1950, the S&P 500 has closed at a record high on roughly 7 percent of trading days, which works out to one record about every fifteen trading days. This piece explains what an all-time high actually is, why records cluster in long-rising markets, why a record does not mean a market is 'overvalued' or 'due' for a fall, and shows the math on what waiting in cash for a dip can cost over a long horizon, using a clearly-labeled hypothetical return.
Read →What a company's valuation in a private funding round actually means
Every few weeks a headline says 'Company X raised at a $50 billion valuation' and a reader's first question is whether that means the company is actually worth $50 billion the way a public stock is worth its market cap. The short answer is no: a private-round valuation is a negotiated figure between a small set of late-stage investors and the company, used to price one specific slice of equity. It is not a market price, and most people cannot buy in. This piece explains what the number actually represents, the difference between pre-money and post-money, and why the public-market equivalent (market cap) works differently.
Read →Drawdown: what it means in investing vs. accounting
The word drawdown gets used two different ways in finance, and people who hear it in one context often misread it in the other. In investing, a drawdown is how far a portfolio has fallen from its most recent peak before recovering. In accounting and banking, it is the act of pulling cash from a credit line or available facility. Same word, two completely different meanings. This piece separates them, shows the math behind the investing meaning (a 30 percent drawdown takes about a 43 percent gain to recover, not 30 percent), and explains why the asymmetry matters.
Read →What future value actually means, with the real math
Future value is the dollar amount that a sum today will become in the future, after a chosen rate of return compounds over a chosen number of years. The math is simple. The implications are not. This piece explains the formula, walks through a worked example, and connects future value to the Real Cost Method that every lesson on the site uses.
Read →Eight Big Banks Just Got Their Living Will Grades. They Passed
On May 22, 2026, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Federal Reserve Board jointly published feedback letters on resolution plans, the documents that the eight largest U.S. banks and 56 foreign banking organizations must file to prove they can fail without taking down the financial system. For the first time in years, the agencies found no shortcomings and no deficiencies. Here is what a resolution plan is, and what it means that this round passed clean.
Read →The Fed Just Released Its Discount Rate Meeting Minutes. Here Is What the Discount Rate Actually Is
On May 26, 2026, the Federal Reserve published minutes from its April 20 and April 29 discount rate meetings. The discount rate is the rate the Fed charges banks to borrow directly from it, and it sits at 3.75% right now, matching the upper bound of the federal funds target range. Here is what that means, and what it does not.
Read →The April FOMC Minutes Show a Fed Caught Between Two Bad Outcomes
The Federal Reserve released the minutes from its April 28-29 meeting, showing the committee held the federal funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% while wrestling with competing risks: inflation that has not fully cooled, and an economy showing signs of slowing. Here is what the debate inside that room actually means for your savings rate, your loan costs, and the price of waiting.
Read →The Fed Wants to Build a New Payment Account for Banks: What That Means
The Federal Reserve has proposed a new 'payment account' that banks and eligible financial institutions could use to clear and settle payments directly with the Fed. The change targets the plumbing of the financial system, the part that moves money between institutions before it ever reaches your bank account.
Read →Receipts: we said gas at $4 was the story. It's now $4.49.
A few weeks ago we published an article on gas crossing $4 a gallon. As of this week, the AAA national average is $4.49. Here is what we got right, what we got wrong, and what the Real Cost lens looks like at the current price.
Read →Airfare up 21 percent: the real cost of a family summer trip
Airline fares are up 20.7 percent year over year as of April, the highest level since 2022, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Here is what that does to a typical family vacation budget and, under the Real Cost lens, to your retirement.
Read →Memorial Day gas prices and the real cost of a 1,200-mile road trip
The U.S. average price of regular gasoline was $4.49 a gallon on May 19, 2026, per the EIA. Here is what that means for the household driving 1,200 miles this weekend, and what that price has added up to over the past five years.
Read →Five-percent savings accounts are back. The fine print, and what they actually pay.
A handful of FDIC-insured banks are advertising 5.00 percent APY. None of them pay 5.00 percent on every dollar without conditions. Here is what the fine print does to the math on a real balance.
Read →The pandemic savings are gone for the bottom 80%. The top 20% still have theirs.
Federal Reserve research on what actually happened to the pandemic-era savings cushion, decoded in plain English. The story is not that the cushion is gone. The story is who still has one and who does not.
Read →What the yield curve actually is (and why people are scared of it).
Plain English on the Treasury yield curve. What the chart shows, what an inversion means and does not mean, and why your mortgage and your savings account both live on the same line.
Read →Two Inflation Numbers, Decoded: Why PCE and CPI Disagree Right Now.
The Fed says inflation is at 3.2%. The BLS says it is at 2.6%. Both are correct. Here is what they actually measure and why the gap shows up in your Social Security check.
Read →Mortgage Rates Jumped This Week. The 10-Year Treasury Didn't. Here's Why.
Mortgage rates rose 15 basis points in the week ending May 21 while the 10-year Treasury was nearly flat. The mortgage spread, a number most people never see, did the work.
Read →Kevin Warsh was just sworn in as Fed chair. What a Fed chair actually does, in plain English.
Kevin Warsh was sworn in on May 22 as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve, replacing Jerome Powell. The Senate confirmed him 54-45 on May 13. Most Americans know 'the Fed chair sets interest rates,' but the actual job is narrower in some ways and broader in others. Here is what a Fed chair can and cannot do, in plain English.
Read →Target raised its outlook. Walmart trimmed its outlook. The U.S. consumer is in two places at once.
Target reported a strong Q1 on May 20 and raised its full-year sales growth guidance. Walmart reported in line on May 21 and trimmed its Q2 outlook. Two of the country's largest retailers, reporting twenty-four hours apart, sent different signals about what households are doing. Here is what the contrast actually says about the U.S. consumer in May 2026.
Read →The 30-year mortgage just hit 6.51%. Here is what the median American home actually costs now.
Freddie Mac reported on May 21 that the 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 6.51%, a 15-basis-point one-week increase and the highest reading in nine months. With the National Association of Realtors reporting a median existing home sale price of $417,800 for April, here is what buying the median American home actually costs at today's rate.
Read →Nvidia just beat earnings and authorized $80 billion more in buybacks. Here is what a buyback actually does.
Nvidia reported Q1 fiscal 2027 results after the close on May 20, beating Wall Street on revenue, raising its dividend 25 times, and authorizing an additional $80 billion in share buybacks. Plain English on what a buyback actually does to a company you might own.
Read →The 30-year Treasury just hit a 19-year high. Here is what 5.19% does to your loans.
On May 19, 2026, the yield on the 30-year U.S. Treasury bond briefly touched 5.197%, the highest level since July 2007. The 10-year Treasury, the benchmark behind most mortgages and auto loans, reached 4.687%. Here is what those bond market moves mean for the rates you actually pay.
Read →Target just beat earnings. What one quarterly print actually tells you about the consumer.
Target reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 results before the market opened on May 20, beating Wall Street estimates on revenue and earnings and raising its full-year outlook. Here is how to read one company's quarter as a signal about household spending, and how not to.
Read →Companies keep announcing AI layoffs. The market keeps not rewarding them.
A wave of companies are cutting staff and citing AI as the reason. A plain-English look at why the stock market has mostly not treated those layoffs as good news.
Read →The SpaceX IPO has a date now. And one detail worth knowing first.
An update to our earlier SpaceX piece. The IPO timeline has firmed up, and a detail that got less attention the first time, the share structure, deserves a plain-English look.
Read →Who Actually Pays the Tariffs? Start With Your Own Receipt.
April's inflation report had a quieter second story: tariffs. A plain-English look at who actually pays them and where they land in your budget.
Read →The Stock Market Is Not the Economy. Here's the Difference.
The S&P 500 hit records while consumer confidence hit a record low. A plain-English look at why the stock market and the economy are not the same thing.
Read →The Beijing summit, decoded. What got signed versus what got said.
A two-day Trump-Xi summit in Beijing on May 14 and 15, 2026 produced one signed commercial commitment, China's agreement to buy 200 Boeing jets, alongside a set of stability statements. President Trump had publicly floated 500 jets. Boeing shares fell roughly 4 percent on the news, per Reuters.
Read →The SpaceX IPO: what it means if you own an index fund.
SpaceX has set the stage for what would be the largest stock market debut in history, and a proposed rule change could put the stock into millions of index funds and 401(k) plans automatically.
Read →The minimum payment, decoded. Why a $6,500 card balance takes 21 years to clear.
At 21.52% APR, paying only the minimum on a $6,500 credit card balance takes 256 months to clear and costs $10,601 in interest, more than the original balance.
Read →Your raise might be a pay cut. What “real wages” actually means.
In April 2026, the average worker's hourly pay went up, but prices went up faster, so an hour of work bought less than it did a month earlier.
Read →Groceries just posted their biggest monthly jump since 2022. Gas is not the whole story.
Grocery prices rose 0.7% from March to April 2026, the biggest one-month increase in almost four years, and the climb was broad rather than driven by a single aisle.
Read →Kevin Warsh is the new Fed Chair. Here is what that actually means.
The Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair on May 13, 2026 by a 54 to 45 vote. Here is what the Fed Chair actually controls, in plain English.
Read →The 30-year Treasury just hit 5 percent. What that means for mortgages.
The Treasury's 30-year auction cleared at 5.046% on May 13, 2026, the first 5% print since 2007. Here is the actual link to your mortgage payment.
Read →The Strait of Hormuz is open. Here is why gasoline still costs $4.50 a gallon.
Brent crude has retraced most of its conflict-era spike and the Strait of Hormuz is functionally open. But the American Automobile Association (AAA) reports the U.S. national average for regular gasoline at roughly $4.50 per gallon, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) shows gasoline up 28.4% year over year. Here are three plain-English reasons retail prices stay sticky after the headline shock fades.
Read →Airline fares jumped 20.7 percent in the last year. What the CPI actually measures.
The April 2026 Consumer Price Index showed airline fares up 2.8% month over month and 20.7% year over year. Before the summer travel season starts on Memorial Day weekend, here is what that number is actually counting, what is driving it, and why a single month of airfare data is almost never the story.
Read →Why your electric bill went up: AI data centers and a Virginia rate case
On November 25, 2025, Virginia's State Corporation Commission approved a Dominion Energy rate increase that adds $11.24 per month to a typical residential electric bill in 2026, with another $2.36 per month in 2027. The SCC's order says the structure was designed to insulate ordinary ratepayers from infrastructure costs tied to data center growth. The average Virginia residential rate hit 15.96 cents per kilowatt-hour in February 2026, up from 14.22 cents a year earlier. Here is the plain-English version of how the AI buildout is showing up on real electric bills.
Read →The tariff clock that runs out July 24, and what it has cost households so far
A 10 percent global tariff imposed February 24, 2026 under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 is scheduled to expire by statute on July 24, 2026. The President cannot extend it unilaterally. Dallas Fed research released May 5 estimates the realized tariff changes added about 0.80 percentage points to the 12-month core PCE inflation rate through March 2026. The Yale Budget Lab estimates average annual household costs range from about $517 in the lowest income decile to $2,175 in the top decile, in 2025 dollars. Here is the plain-English version of where those costs show up.
Read →Why your mortgage rate moved this week (and it had nothing to do with you)
The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.37% the week of May 7-8, up from a 2026 low of 6.01% the week of February 19. Industry coverage calls the moves a 'bouncing ball' reacting to Iran headlines. Here is the math on what that move costs the household that locks in this week versus the household that locked in February.
Read →Why your savings APY held while your mortgage rate spiked: the gap that pays your bills
High-yield savings accounts still pay 4% to 4.5% APY. New mortgage rates are at 6.37%. The gap between what cash earns and what debt costs is the widest practical signal in personal finance right now. Here is the math on what that gap means for the typical household and what action it implies.
Read →Stagflation, the word everyone is saying again: what it actually means for your money
Wall Street commentary in May 2026 keeps reaching for a word that has been mostly out of use since the early 1980s: stagflation. The 1970s parallels are real but limited. Here is the plain-English version of what stagflation is, why the comparison is back, and what defends a household against it if it actually arrives.
Read →Gas is back above $4: what an oil shock actually does to your budget
AAA's national average for regular gasoline hit $4.46 today, the first sustained run above $4 since August 2022. The pump price is the obvious story. The less obvious one is how oil quietly resets almost every other price you pay over the next few months.
Read →Powell's term ends May 15: what changes when the Fed gets a new chair
Jerome Powell's term as Federal Reserve Chair ends May 15. Kevin Warsh has cleared the Senate Banking Committee. Powell, unusually, plans to stay on the Board of Governors. None of this changes today's interest rate by a single basis point, but who runs the Fed matters for the rates you actually pay over the next year.
Read →Credit card debt just crossed $1.3 trillion: the minimum-payment math, in plain English
Americans now owe more than $1.3 trillion on credit cards, a record. The average APR on cards carrying a balance sits at 21.52%. Here is the math behind why those balances grow so fast, and what that means even for households whose own balance is zero.
Read →April 2026
· 7 postsFed holds rates again: what the April 2026 decision means for your wallet
The Federal Reserve voted on April 29, 2026 to keep interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% in a divided 8-4 vote, the most dissent the committee has shown in over thirty years. Here is what that means in plain English for the rates you actually pay.
Read →Roth vs Traditional: the framework people use to think about it
It is one of the most common retirement-account questions, and the answer comes down to a single comparison that's worth thinking through carefully.
Read →Why Treasury yields are stuck high, and what changes when they move
Treasury yields have been elevated for a while. Here is what is keeping them there and how that affects normal financial decisions you might be making this year.
Read →The S&P 500's quiet concentration problem
Index funds are diversified by design, but the major U.S. indexes are now more concentrated in a handful of names than they have been in decades. Here is what that means for your portfolio.
Read →Tax deadline just passed: 5 housekeeping items people often forget
The April 15 tax filing deadline has come and gone. Here are five common housekeeping items people often handle right after filing, while the information is still fresh.
Read →What Fed rate decisions actually change in the economy
Eight times a year the Federal Reserve announces an interest-rate decision. Here is what that decision actually changes in your daily financial life.
Read →Tax-loss harvesting in 4 minutes
A common end-of-year tax move, in plain English: sell losing investments to reduce your tax bill, but watch the wash-sale trap.
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