The simple version

The $13.5 billion in Halloween headlines is a forecast built from a survey. People were asked in early September what they plan to spend.

It is also counted in dollars, not costumes or candy. When prices rise, the same purchases cost more, and the total grows even if nobody buys more.

The numbers

• Halloween spending is expected to reach $13.5 billion in 2026, after last year's record $13.1 billion (National Retail Federation, survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, released September 22, 2026)
• Average planned spending is $115.14 per person, compared with $114.45 in 2025 (NRF)
• 74% of consumers plan to celebrate, compared with 73% last year (NRF)
• Candy accounts for an expected $4.1 billion, decorations $4.3 billion, and costumes $4.4 billion (NRF)
• The survey asked 7,889 consumers from September 1 through 9 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.1 percentage points (NRF)
• Consumer prices overall rose 3.4% over the 12 months ending in August 2026 (Bureau of Labor Statistics)

What a spending survey measures

A spending survey records intentions. It tells you what people expect to spend on the day they answer, not what they end up spending.

The margin of error applies to the survey's percentages, such as the share of people who plan to celebrate. It is not a range on the $13.5 billion total.

The useful number is often the per-person figure, because it is closer to a household's own budget. This year it barely moved.

The Real Cost lens on $115

Here is planned spending per person, measured against prices overall. The price figure is all consumer prices, not Halloween items specifically.

• Last year's plan: $114.45 per person.
• This year's plan: $115.14, about 0.6% more.
• If last year's $114.45 rose with prices overall, at 3.4%, it would be about $118.34.
• This year's plan is about $3.20 below that. In dollars spending rose; measured against prices, the average plan shrank.

The total grew about 3.1% using NRF's rounded figures, faster than per-person spending. The survey also shows a slightly larger share of people planning to celebrate.

What this means

Seasonal spending forecasts are surveys of plans, reported in dollars. Both facts shape how much a record really says.

The same reading applies to holiday spending forecasts later in the year. Before comparing one year's total with the last, look at what happened per person and what happened to prices.

What this is NOT

This article explains how to read a seasonal spending survey. It is not advice on what to spend or where to shop, and it takes no position on any retailer or on the retail industry's outlook. The 0.6%, 3.1%, $118.34, and $3.20 figures are our arithmetic from NRF's published figures and the BLS all-items index. The all-items index measures prices across the economy, not the prices of Halloween items, so the comparison is a benchmark, not a measured change in Halloween costs.

Sources

• National Retail Federation, NRF Halloween Survey Shows Consumer Spending Expected to Reach $13.5 Billion, September 22, 2026: https://nrf.com/media-center/press-releases/nrf-halloween-survey-shows-consumer-spending-expected-to-reach-13-5-billion
• Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index Summary, August 2026: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm